Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,390,406$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,433,999.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,433,999.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $84,119$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(5.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,357.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(86,357.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,062,857$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,568$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,505.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(80,505.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,425$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(192 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,163.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,163.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,966$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,944$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(687 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,834.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,834.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $256$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(17.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(276.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,621$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,196$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(688 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,030.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(14,030.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $409$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(51.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{412.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(412.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,566$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,186$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(992 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,940.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(69,940.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,220$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(135 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,032.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,032.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,976$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,255$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(50.6 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $123$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(11.1 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(210.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,895$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,810$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(248 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,864.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,864.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(9.88 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(83.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $405$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,037$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(27.7 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $643$ on 2020-05-13