Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • US
  • Canada
  • Panama
  • Dominican Republic
  • Mexico
  • Honduras
  • Cuba
  • El Salvador
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Costa Rica

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,390,406$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,433,999.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,433,999.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $84,119$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(5.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,357.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(86,357.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,062,857$ on 2020-05-13

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,568$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,505.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(80,505.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,425$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(192 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,163.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,163.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,966$ on 2020-05-13

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,944$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(687 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,834.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,834.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $256$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(17.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(276.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,621$ on 2020-05-13

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,196$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(688 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,030.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(14,030.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $409$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(51.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{412.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(412.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,566$ on 2020-05-13

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,186$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(992 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,940.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(69,940.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,220$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(135 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,032.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,032.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,976$ on 2020-05-13

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,255$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(50.6 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(11.1 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(210.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,895$ on 2020-05-13

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,810$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(248 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,864.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,864.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(9.88 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(83.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $405$ on 2020-05-13

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,037$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(27.7 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $643$ on 2020-05-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cuba recovered 52%
Costa Rica recovered 50%

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $815$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{755.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 25.1)}}\) (asimptote \(755.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $280$ on 2020-05-13